Barron's Tinen Ray writes today that with just ten days to go until Apple begins to take pre-orders for the Apple Watch, it must be time to start prognosticating how the Apple Watch will sell. This morning, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple, and a $160 price target, writing that "we believe investors may begin to focus on opening weekend metrics."
But tracking initial sales of Apple Watch is not like opening-weekend sales of the iPhone or iPad, because the Watch is going to be included in the "Other" category of revenue, Apple has said. And so the company "may or may not release opening-weekend sales figures." Munster is projecting Apple will sell 300,000 pre-orders in the first 24 hours and 1 million units in the first weekend.
Munster noted that Jaffray believes given interest in the product and their prior survey work, a sub 1% attach rate in the opening weekend is realistic. They also believe most investors are thinking Apple will sell between 10-20 million Watch units in Calendar Year 2015 (CY15) and the Street is currently at 14 million for CY15. Overall, Jaffray believes the Apple Watch could reach 40-50 million units by CY17, which would be about 10% of CY17 revenue.
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