Ahead of the Trump administration announcing a raft of tariffs on April 2, smartphone shipments surged 30% YoY in March as OEMs across the board raced to bring inventory into the country to beat these tariffs. Shipment volumes increased across the major smartphone exporting countries like China, India and Vietnam. This increased US inventories by 51% YoY for March,

Tariffs drove a shift in the country-of-origin mix away from China in Q1 2025 with a strong uptick in shipments from India in March. Apple, Samsung and Motorola all saw their shipment contribution from India increase. Motorola nearly tripled its volume from India in March YoY and Samsung leaned more heavily on India to produce the Galaxy A16. India-manufactured devices represented 26% of Q1 2025 shipments, up from 16% in Q1 2024.

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Apple’s sell-in grew 42% YoY in March as it rushed units into the US to avoid the most severe impact of tariffs placed on China. Inventory in Q1 climbed to a record number of weeks to help keep prices stable through the summer. Shipments from India increased disproportionately YoY, whereas China saw a less dramatic bump. Some of that increase also spilled over into the first week of April. “The increase in shipments in March and early April will help insulate Apple from potential immediate pricing impacts in the US through mid-to-late summer.

Should the tariff situation remain unresolved with China by the time the iPhone 17 ships, we expect India to become the primary provider for US-bound iPhone 17 devices,” said Senior Research Analyst Gerrit Schneemann.

For the record, it was reported yesterday that the U.S. and China have agreed to slash tariffs for 90 days as trade talks continue. So while the tariff matter is a moving target today, a new trade agreement between the two global powers may provide some relief for tech companies, especially for Apple going in to September when the iPhone 17 is set to launch.