While it was reported yesterday that Trump’s tariffs on smartphones and computers were being spared, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wanted to clarify this false reporting. Below are a few points that he made:

 

• Deputy National Security Advisor Stephen Miller confirmed that the 20% IEEPA tariffs on Chinese imports are still in effect.

• While U.S. tariff pressure on China has softened, three potential tariffs remain in focus: a proposed 20% tariff tied to fentanyl trade, executive orders related to reciprocal tariffs following the White House’s April 11 announcement, and new semiconductor tariffs.

• Tne of the key factors recently affecting these three potential tariffs is whether China calls President Trump.

• Apple had been stockpiling iPhones for the U.S. market since the Lunar New Year, building up over two months of inventory. This buffer should shield U.S. sales for 2Q25 from the impact of tariffs. However, this front-loading may lead to a sharper disruption to the supply chain during the model transition compared to prior years.

• Production lines in China assembling iPhones for the U.S. market remain halted, implying that Apple’s plan to make and export these iPhones from India exclusively starting in 2Q25 remains unchanged. However, production plans are subject to change and should be closely monitored.
• though reducing tariffs from 145% to 20% could temporarily ease market sentiment, the pressure on Apple remains significant, as reflected in its preemptive inventory buildup.

• The Trump administration’s unpredictable tariff policy poses the greatest short-term uncertainty for iPhone supply. While tariff shifts may impact stock prices in the short run, the medium to long-term focus will remain on Apple’s preparedness for geopolitical risks, iPhone competitiveness, and macroeconomic conditions.

 

Yet according to a Daily Economic News report published this morning via IT Home, the relevant supply chain manufacturers stated that "The production lines in China have not stopped, and the news of this is purely false."