Apple's First Foldable iPhone Predictions: Market Positioning, Hardware Specs, Development Schedule, and Shipment Estimates

Market Positioning:

A True AI-driven Phone. Multimodal functionality and cross-app integration are the trends in AI device use cases. Larger screens enhance the AI experience, enabling scenarios like chatting with a chatbot about travel plans while viewing a full map app simultaneously.

Top-tier iPhone. The first-generation foldable iPhone is expected to retail above $2,000 and $2,500. Leveraging the iPhone's status as a must-have device and Apple's loyal fanbase, it's expected to generate strong replacement demand—despite the premium price—provided quality meets expectations.

Hardware Specs:

• Touch ID returns as a side button, as Face ID may be absent due to thickness and internal space constraints.

• The foldable iPhone will have a book-style design, featuring an approximately 7.8-inch crease-free inner display and an approximately 5.5-inch outer display.

• The rear camera features a dual-lens setup, with one front-facing camera available in both folded and unfolded states.

• It will measure 9–9.5mm thick when folded and 4.5–4.8mm when unfolded.

• The hinge will combine stainless steel and titanium alloy, while the casing opts for titanium alloy.

• It will use the same high-density battery cells as the ultra-thin iPhone 17.

Development Schedule:

• Final specs will be locked in 2Q25, with the official project kickoff in 3Q25 and mass production slated for 4Q26.

• The second-generation foldable iPhone is expected to begin mass production in 2H27.

Shipment Estimates:

• The complexity of the first-generation foldable iPhone will cap volume production until 2027.

• Shipments are projected at 3–5 million units for 2026.

• With the second-generation model included, total foldable iPhone shipments could reach 20 million units in 2027.

Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo further revealed that Bright Laser Technologies (BLT), will be a leading supplier and key beneficiary in producing the foldable iPhone’s hinge cover and middle frame NPI, both crafted from titanium alloy.

The hinge cover is required to be very thin, while the middle frame requires hollow-out, resulting in a complex design that requires 3D printing technology for both components.

Currently, the combined unit price for the hinge cover and middle frame samples produced by BLT is around 800-900 RMB. Once mass production ramps up and yields improve, this price is estimated to drop to between 400 and 600 RMB.

Assuming first-generation foldable iPhone shipments reach 20 million units, with BLT supplying 80% of these components, the company could see roughly 8 billion RMB in revenue from this product line in 2026–2027. BLT’s 2024 revenue is approximately 1.2 billion RMB, so the company is expected to experience significant revenue growth starting in 2026.

Kuo further revealed that Polylite is another leader and key beneficiary of the foldable iPhone. Polylite is the supplier of bearing cover and middle frame NPI (both are made of titanium alloy) for the foldable iPhone. Because the bearing cover needs to be thin and the middle frame needs to be hollowed out, the design is complex, so both require the use of 3D printing technology.

Assuming that the shipment volume of the first-generation iPhone is 20 million units and that Polylite accounts for 80% of its supply, the first-generation foldable iPhone will contribute approximately RMB 8 billion to Polylite's revenue in 2026-2027. Polylite's revenue in 2024 will be approximately RMB 1.2 billion, so it is expected that Polylite's revenue will grow strongly starting from 2026.