Kuo: If Apple Watch Ultra 3 is to Launch in 2025, Apple must Kick-Off their Development Cycle by December + Kuo looks back at his Predictions+
This morning famed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo talked up a storm about Apple’s need to have their Apple Watch Ultra development set for 2025 by December and so much more.
Commentary on the Apple Watch Development Schedule
- As of now, Apple has yet to kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 development officially. It is unusual given the product development schedule.
- If Apple doesn’t officially kick off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project by December, it’s almost confirmed that we won’t be seeing a new Apple Watch Ultra in 2025.
- In my view, Apple hasn’t officially kicked off the Apple Watch Ultra 3 project because it needs more time to develop innovative health management features, ensure the manufacturability of new features, and address issues related to Micro LED production.
- Without a new Apple Watch Ultra model in 2025, the shipments of the Apple Watch Ultra are expected to decline by 20–30% YoY in 2025, and the total Apple Watch shipments will decline by 10% YoY in 2025 to about 35 million units.
Kuo Looks Back at his iPhone 16 Predictions & more
“Around four months ago, I predicted that the iPhone 16 Pro Max would feature an increase in battery density, and this could potentially be validated by comparing the battery life and weight of the Pro series models. The basic idea is that while the battery is just one of the factors contributing to the phone’s weight, battery life generally increases in proportion to weight.
Comparing the 16 Pro Max to the 15 Pro Max, for every 1% increase in weight, the battery life (video playback) increases by 5.1%. Similarly, comparing the 14 Pro Max to the 13 Pro Max, every 1% increase in weight resulted in a 4.5% increase in battery life.
When comparing the 16 Pro to the 15 Pro, every 1% increase in weight leads to a 2.7% increase in battery life. For the 14 Pro vs. 13 Pro, every 1% increase in weight results in a 3% improvement in battery life.
In terms of increased battery time per 1% weight gain, the reason the 16 Pro shows less battery life improvement compared to the 14 Pro may be due to the inclusion of the tetraprism in the 16 Pro, which wasn’t present in the 15 Pro. On the other hand, the 16 Pro Max’s improvement over the 14 Pro Max could be attributed in part to increased battery density.
It’s important to note that the 13 and 14 Pro models used stainless steel frames, while the 15 and 16 Pro models feature titanium frames, which have a significant weight difference. As a result, it’s not ideal to compare the weight-to-battery life ratios between the 13/14 Pro series and the 15/16 Pro series.
The predictions about the color of the iPhone 16 series cases four months ago were roughly correct. The only error was that the new color of the iPhone 16 Pro series, desert titanium, was predicted to be rose. However, this may also be a different color. A term used to describe similar color combinations.
The prediction of the color of the iPhone 16 series casings four months ago was largely correct. The only mistake was in predicting the new color of the iPhone 16 Pro series, Desert Titanium, to be Rose, but that may have been due to using different color terminology to describe the same color scheme.
Side Note: My impression is that Kuo was talking about Apple Watch Ultra 3 and so on that basis I added "Ultra 3" to his notes. Whether he was actually talking about Ultra 3 or about a simple update to the Ultra in 2025 wasn't clear.