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Bloomberg's Mark Gurman provides a timeline of the Development History of the iPhone through to the current iPhone 16 with Apple AI

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Bloomberg's Mark Gurman begins this week's Power On Newsletter by stating that "The new iPhone has tantalizing camera improvements, but the device is emblematic of Apple’s slower pace of hardware innovation." The vast majority of this week's newsletter focuses on the development history of the iPhone for those that are interested.

Gurman notes that when Apple Inc. introduced the original iPhone in 2007, the wireless carrier industry was aggressively pursuing a bold strategy: pushing consumers to upgrade to a new device every two years — at a steep discount.

Apple, looking to break into the phone world, went all-in on that idea. By the time the second-generation iPhone went on sale in 2008, the device cost just $199 for most people — subsidized by wireless carriers. That model, the 3G, helped set the pattern for Apple’s iPhone strategy for the next several years.

In 2009, Apple introduced the iPhone 3GS. That was Apple’s first new iPhone without a design change. The device was even introduced with a commercial that had a person declare, “I think it’s the same” — though it did have new features like a faster processor and video recording.

The following year, Apple did a more dramatic overhaul. The iPhone 4 had a new design, FaceTime, the first Retina display and high-definition video recording. A year later, Apple retained the same design — calling the model the 4S — but added 1080P video recording, a dual-core processor and, of course, the Siri digital assistant.

By this point, Apple’s biennial redesign schedule was well-established. The company would revamp the phone every other year, just in time for consumers to do their regular upgrades. The approach lasted until the mid-2010s.

Over the 17-history of the iPhone, I count six genuinely new hardware redesigns:

  • iPhone 3G (2008)
  • iPhone 4 (2010)
  • iPhone 5 (2012)
  • iPhone 6 (2014)
  • iPhone X (2017)
  • iPhone 12 (2020)

 

By the launch of the iPhone X in 2017, Apple had moved to a three-year redesign cycle. Back then, that extra year of development made sense. The iPhone X was a gigantic upgrade, with its ground-up redesign, Face ID and other new software.

From there, it took Apple another three years to bring out its next big overhaul: the iPhone 12. This was the first iPhone to connect to 5G networks, and the launch took place at the height of the pandemic. The company also had new screen sizes, manufacturing techniques and four distinct models for the first time.

But after that, the redesign lag got even lengthier. Apple now appears to be working on a half-decade-long cycle. For better or for worse, the iPhone 16 has a nearly identical look and feel as the iPhone 12. Apple has added a lot other features between 2020 and 2024, but it’s undeniable that the days of frequent hardware changes are over.

Has this hurt Apple’s sales? It’s hard to tell. The company did suffer a revenue decline last year — partly due to slower iPhone sales — though much of the smartphone industry was mired in a slump.

A reliable group of customers still upgrade every year or two because of the iPhone Upgrade Program, trade-in offers or carrier installment programs (even if the incentives aren’t as generous as they once were). Millions of additional upgrades come from people like me, who will get a new model each year because they simply love Apple devices. And it does look like the iPhone 16 may well be a hit product, based on the early buzz on launch day.

But for a company looking to prove that it still has design chops — now that most of Jony Ive’s vaunted team has left the building — the lack of major overhauls in recent years is notable.

Ive left Apple in 2019, but remained a consultant for a few years afterward. So it’s very likely that we haven’t yet seen a major new Apple product that he wasn’t involved with — at least to some extent.

Still, the iPhone 16 has some changes that users will probably love. I picked up a Pro Max model on Friday and have been putting it through its paces this weekend.

Here are Gurman's first impressions:

  • When the phone is in a case, it’s nearly indistinguishable from the last few iPhones. Even the slimmer bezels basically disappear when the device is in a cover. To notice the reduced edges, you also need to put the phone up against the iPhone 15 Pro side by side. That said, the change is more noticeable if you’re coming from an iPhone 14.
  • Also negligible: the screen size increases. Unless you’re coming from a model that’s older than an iPhone 12, the bigger displays won’t be noticeable and don’t add much during day-to-day use.
  • The processor gains are more impressive (15% faster for the main chip). I found that launching apps and jumping between windows actually has been snappier.
  • In just a couple of days of use, the improvements to battery life are already apparent. On its website, Apple quotes a four-hour boost over the iPhone 15 Pro Max for video playback. If that holds up over time, that’s a remarkable gain.
  • I find the Camera Control interface — the main addition — to be terrific. It takes a few minutes to get the hang of it (how hard you need to press and how to swipe between camera settings), but once you do, you probably won’t want to use the touch screen for operating the camera app any longer. I do wish, however, that you could swipe between camera modes (spatial, slow-mo, panorama, etc.) via the interface as well.

 

There are other camera improvements, such as the expanded Photographic Styles options and the new ultrawide camera lens. Still, it doesn’t feel like a radically different experience." And for the record, Apple is tied for fourth spot in the latest DXOMARK review with Huawei taking top spot for smartphone cameras.

Gurman adds that "To that end, it’s no accident that the company is touting Apple Intelligence as the main reason to buy a new iPhone — despite the fact that the AI platform is unfinished and will ultimately work on last year’s Pro models.

This is where Apple is being a little disingenuous with its marketing. The company claims the iPhone 16 is the first model “built from the ground up for Apple Intelligence.” The reality is that the processor and other hardware in the new iPhones isn’t meaningfully better for AI. The key factor is having 8 gigabytes of memory, the minimum required to run Apple Intelligence.

If Apple felt that the hardware changes were enough of a selling point, it would have focused its marketing pitch around those features. Instead, it has zeroed in on Apple Intelligence in spite of the drawbacks. Most consumers won’t have access to the software for weeks — with some features not coming until next year — and it’s still nowhere near as capable as rival AI systems.

Even if all of Apple Intelligence was available today — including the emoji generator called Genmoji, Image Playground and the new Siri — there’s little here that makes these iPhones a must-buy.

Further Gurman notes that "A slew of updates to iOS 18 and Apple Intelligence are in the works. Apple is already racing to complete a major iOS 18.2 upgrade, which will include features like Genmoji, ChatGPT integration and the Image Playground app. The company is looking to get that release down to zero-bug status in early November so it can ship it by December. Other features in the works include notification prioritization on the lock screen and the new email app interface.

Further, staggered rollout of Apple Intelligence could test the patience of customers. Though it’s not uncommon for Apple to postpose the release of new features, the scale of the delays this year is unprecedented. And the company has only made things worse by turning these still-unavailable features into the main selling point for new iPhones.

For more on this, wait for Gurman's newsletter to be made public, hopefully later today.  In the meantime, if you missed Gurman's interview on the iPhone 16, watch it below.

10.X21 -  Mark Gurman rumors & Insights