Ming-Chi Kuo's latest commentary made this afternoon on Medium states that "Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased."

Kuo Quotes Two Sources:

• TSMC: We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased.
• Largan: Orders for high-end models this year are similar to last year.

Kuo further noted that "My understanding is that some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for 2H24, but from the EMS/assembly perspective, the iPhone 16 orders for 2H24 have not seen much change (about 87 million units), still slightly lower than the 2H23 iPhone 15 orders (about 91 million units).

If the order trends of TSMC, Largan Precision, and assembly manufacturers are consistent, the trends should be quite indicative. As for the increase in iPhone 16 orders for certain suppliers, it might be related to specific reasons within individual industries or components.

The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English.

Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.