Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has published his latest research notes and opinions about Apple's Vision Pro headset. He notes that after the initial burst of sales with early adopters, the sales rate has fallen. Kuo states that "U.S. shipments are expected to be 200,000–250,000 units this year, better than Apple’s original estimate of 150,000–200,000 units, but this is still a niche market." Here are few other points made today:

Global release forecast

• Due to the limited demand growth in the U.S. market, advancing the global release schedule is favorable when the supply improves. The actual release time will depend on Apple’s software modification schedule to comply with other countries’ regulations.
• I still maintain my prediction that Apple may launch Vision Pro in more countries before WWDC this year.

Supply chain production expansion:

• In the past month, several small-capacity suppliers have expanded production from 500,000–600,000 units to 700,000–800,000 units this year [for global demand].
• In addition to better-than-expected demand from early adopters in the U.S. market, another key reason for Apple to ask suppliers to expand production is to reduce shipping time after the global launch.

Return rate:

• According to my survey of the repair/refurbishment production line, the current return rate for Vision Pro is less than 1%, with no anomalies.
• It is worth noting that 20–30% of the returns are due to users not knowing how to set up Vision Pro.

New model prediction:

• The market generally expects Apple to release a lower-priced version with downgraded specs (e.g., reduced number of cameras, removal of EyeSight, etc.) and a new model with upgraded specs. However, my latest survey indicates that Apple has not officially started either project.
• Apple’s new Vision Pro project is expected to go into mass production in 4Q25–1Q26, with Hon Hai receiving the new product introduction (NPI). The new project focuses on improving the efficiency of production and supply chain management rather than changing specs. The new project may reduce costs, and the latest plan shows limited changes to product specs, so it is estimated that the user experience will not differ from the current model.
• Apple is already collecting user feedback for the Vision Pro product roadmap. It is currently estimated that new models with significant changes to the Vision Pro specification may not be in mass production until 2027.

While Kuo expects a mild upgrade to Vision Pro in 4Q25-1Q26, you have to wonder if advances in XR headsets from competitors such as Samsung, Meta-LG and others force Apple to push for a more robust upgrade in the 4Q25-1Q26 timeline.