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10.0z22 cover (Ming-Chi Kuo)

Ming-Chi Kuo's latest survey indicates several key high-end growth drivers will boost Apple supplier Genius Electronic Optical over the next 1–2 years. These include a significant upgrade to the iPhone 17’s front camera lens, the periscope lens (which Apple calls a tetraprism) for the iPhone 16 Pro series, the high-unit price pancake for Vision Pro, the ultra-wide lens for the iPhone 16 Pro series. Below are Kuo's four main research points:

  • The front camera of the iPhone 17 will be upgraded to 24MP/6P lens (vs. the 12MP/5P lens of iPhone 15 & 16), which will significantly improve the image quality. Genius is the primary lens supplier for iPhone front cameras. As the unit price of the 6P lens is 100–120% higher than that of the 5P, it will contribute significantly to Genius’ revenue of more than NT$3 billion and profit in 2H25.


  • Genius’ progress on the iPhone 16 Pro’s periscope lens is on track. It will start shipping by the end of 2Q24 or early 3Q24, contributing significantly to Genius’ revenue of over NT$3 billion and profit in 2H24. Replacement demand for the two iPhone 16 Pro models will benefit from the larger screen, increasing shipments by 5–10% compared to the iPhone 15 Pro series. Therefore, even considering the 10–15% price reduction of the periscope lens and Largan remaining the main supplier, the high unit price of the iPhone 16 Pro periscope lens can still contribute significantly to Genius’ revenue and profit in 2H24.


  • Genius, as the exclusive supplier, started mass shipments of high-unit-price pancakes for Vision Pro by the end of 2023. It’s estimated to contribute approximately NT$1 billion to Genius’ revenue in 2024. Vision Pro contributes significantly more to Genius’s revenue than most vendors.


  • Genius’ ultra-wide lens profit for the iPhone 16 Pro series (as a major supplier) will continue to grow. The ultra-wide camera of the iPhone 16 Pro series will be upgraded to 48MP/0.7um/(1/2.6") (vs. iPhone 15 Pro’s 12MP/1.0um/(1/3.6")). The expected output specification is 12MP, which will significantly improve image quality. The iPhone 16 Pro ultra-wide camera remains the 6P lens design, so the lens unit price increase is limited. However, as the production yield continues to improve, the profit of Genius’s ultra-wide lens will continue to increase.


10.X - Research notes & Rumors from Ming-Chi Kuo


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