Apple is set to announce their FY23 Fourth Quarter Financial Results tomorrow afternoon with theilr live conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PST. This morning Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released some of the key points to Watch for tomorrow.

• 3Q23 (fourth-quarter fiscal 2023) result generally aligns with market consensus. The more significant impact on the stock price comes from Apple’s expectations for 4Q23 and updates on investor-focused topics, such as the development progress on generative AI services.

• The major potential risk for 4Q23 is in the YoY growth of iPhone shipments in North America (estimated 5–10%), which, at best, may barely offset the year-over-year decline in the Chinese market (estimated 10–15%).

• Looking ahead, investors will focus on 1) the development progress of generative AI services, 2) market trends in China amid geopolitical risks, and 3) the outlook for Vision Pro.

Development progress of generative AI services: Apple may not offer much meaningful information, but the Capex can provide a rough indication of Apple’s progress. The supply of AI servers has seen significant improvements starting from Q4 2023, and Apple should be able to purchase considerably more AI servers than in the previous three quarters.

Market trends in China amid geopolitical risks: Investors are concerned about Apple’s plans to move its supply chain out of China and the decline in iPhone shipments in the Chinese market. However, Apple may not provide much substantive information on this.

Outlook for Vision Pro: Among the topics investors focus on, this is the only one where Apple is more likely to provide more details. If Apple can offer more information, such as pre-order/launch dates, ecosystem development, and marketing strategies, it could benefit the market’s expectations for the head-mounted display device trend.