This afternoon Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released his research notes and opinions on Apple's upcoming spatial computer branded Vision Pro as follows:
- Based on some component suppliers’ maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000–600,000 units, which is less than the market expectation of more than 1 million units.
- Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch). Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.
- The Vision Pro 2 could enter mass production by 1H27 at the latest, suggesting there may be no hardware updates for the Vision Pro in the coming years.
- From a technical point of view, I believe that the Vision Pro will undoubtedly provide users with an excellent experience. However, the question is why users need this product. The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone.
Ming-Chi Kuo has been negative on Apple Vision Pro from the start and many of his past predictions have been dead wrong. Kuo predicted that BOE Display would overtake Samsung for iPhone 15 displays and that was a million miles off target. Stating that Apple "may have cancelled" a lower cost HMD isn't exactly a prediction to hang your hat on. So only time will tell if his predictions hold water.
Initially, Apple Vision Pro will appeal to those who love gaming, watching movies and live sporting events with a massive wall-to-wall virtual display experience. Imagine playing Grand Turismo or an action game like Call of Duty or Assassins Creed on a massive screen. Stock brokers who are used to having 6 or more physical displays to follow stock trends could now have a massive wall of larger virtual displays or simply more displays.