In early January, Ming-Chi Kuo Tweeted that "Qualcomm is the biggest winner of Apple’s cancelation of 2024 iPhone SE 4." In a follow up research note, Ming-Chi Kuo is revising his position. In a series of new tweets today, Kuo states that "Apple has restarted the iPhone SE 4 and will adopt an in-house 5G baseband chip. The significant decline in Qualcomm's Apple orders in the foreseeable future is a foregone conclusion.

Kuo's Latest Research is Presented in the Following Six Points

• The latest survey indicates that Apple has recently restarted the iPhone SE 4, which will feature an OLED display instead of an LCD, as the biggest change. Overall, the SE 4 is a minor modification of the 6.1-inch iPhone 14.

• The new iPhone SE 4 will equip with Apple's 5G baseband chip produced by a 4nm process (similar to 5nm) and will only support Sub-6GHz as the current plan.

• It's still being determined whether the iPhone 16 series will use Apple's 5G baseband chip. The main challenge lies in whether Apple can overcome the technical obstacles related to mmWave and satellite communications.

• Nevertheless, once the SE 4 starts using Apple's 5G baseband chip, it's a foregone conclusion that Qualcomm's Apple orders will decline significantly in the foreseeable future.
• Assuming the mass production of the SE 4 goes smoothly in 1H24, the iPad and Apple Watch, which have lower technical requirements, will soon abandon Qualcomm's baseband chips, too.

• This move will benefit Apple's hardware gross margin, while Qualcomm's Apple business will decline significantly in the next 2-3 years.