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Ming-Chi Kuo Reiterates Apple’s use of Pancake Lenses for their HMD while pointing to an economical second-gen HMD and more

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At the start of 2022, reports by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo on TFI Securities came to a dead stop. Since that time, Kuo has been struggling on Twitter where his tweets haven’t come close to his past work. Today, Kuo may have found a new outlet for his Apple predictions on where writers have an open platform to send in articles, analysis and more.


Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple Mixed Reality Headset Predictions


  1. “The high ASP Pancake lens is the key optical component of Apple AR/MR, directly affecting the visual experience and form factor design.” Patently Apple covered Kuo’s original coverage on Pancake lens suppliers ‘Genius’ and “Young Optics’ back in January.
  2. “The second-generation Apple AR/MR may have high-end and more-affordable models, which will launch in 1H25, and component suppliers will start shipping in 2H24.
  3. Apple AR/MR shipments may reach 10 million units as soon as 2025 or 2026, thanks to the second-generation Apple AR/MR product segmentation strategy and ecosystem.
  1. The first-generation Apple AR/MR will adopt two 3P Pancake modules (one for each eye). The total cost of the Pancake lenses is about $30–40 (USD), roughly equivalent to 20 high-end 7P lenses. It provides a new growth driver for Apple’s optical supply chain in the medium and long term. The cost of the second-generation Pancake lenses will likely increase to improve the visual experience and form factor design.
  1. Largan Precision will likely be a new supplier of the Pancake lens for the second-generation Apple AR/MR headset and expand production capacity for this order in its new Taichung plant.


While it’s nice to see Ming-Chi Kuo finally find a platform for more in-depth analysis that he was famous for, the question remains: Why isn’t Kuo’s analysis not back on TFI Securities website where he’s been for the last few years? One day we may actually get an answer from Kuo.  


10.X - Rumors from Ming-Chi Kuo


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