Although it had been known for months that Apple was on the cusp of signing deals with Samsung and LG for next generation Apple device displays, it was still a shock when news leaked last month that Samsung had scored the first multiyear deal with Apple for OLED displays. A new report published today in Korea notes a forecast from UBI Research that Apple will use more OLED panels than Samsung by 2021.

On Friday, UBI Research hosted an OLED Investment Analysis Seminar, as noted in our cover graphic, titled "The Effects that Apple will have on Display Industry in Seoul, Korea." At this event, UBI Research's Choong Hoon Yi estimated future flexible OLED smartphone market share.

According to Yi, Apple is to begin releasing a flexible OLED based iPhone starting in 2017, and occupy 8% of the global flexible OLED smartphone market in that year. Following this, Yi analyzed that Apple will continue to increase market share each year to record 32% by 2020 and surpass Samsung by 2021 with 37% market share versus Samsung at 27%. At present Samsung holds 70% global market share for OLED displays.

At the seminar, Yi told the attendees that Apple is selling approximately 220 million units of iPhone per year, but the number is expected to increase to 300-million-unit mark and of that 30% of that is estimated to be OLED equipped products. He added that Apple's volume will increase to 400-million units by 2020 and 80% will be OLED.

With Apple's section of OLED, the competition for the product supply between global display companies is expected to be fierce. Yi forecast that Samsung Display will supply 60% of the demand, the second supplier 30%, and the rest 10%.

LG Display and Japan Display are likely to be the second and third suppliers. However, Apple's steadfast partner, Foxconn took over Sharp and became a strong candidate for this position. Hence, 4 companies could end up supplying to Apple.

The report also noted that "JDI also announced smartphone AMOLED panel mass production in January 2016 aiming for mass production in 2018. There is a possibility of investment for AMOLED supply for iPhone. Yi also estimated that Apple will conclude OLED emitting materials company selection by this August or September.

One of the tech sites covering the UBI Research event on Friday was the Korean Herald which added additional information. They noted that UBI Research President Lee Choong-hoon supported the rumor of a curved glass iPhone with OLED for 2018 (with some analysts still think 2017).

Interestingly, the Korean Herald noted that industry sources close to the matter confirmed that "Foxconn had recently purchased an OLED production system of Canon Tokki, one of the key equipment for OLED production whose supply is extremely limited.' At the moment the thinking has been that Foxconn-Sharp would enter Apple's OLED supply chain by 2020, but the news of the Canon Tokki advantage could expedite that time table.

Lee Woon-keun, senior analyst at LG Economic Research Institute, also cautioned about underrating the potential of Chinese display makers that have grown based on the Chinese government's strong support. He further noted that 'They have achieved goals set by the government. They are fast growing not just on quantity but also on quality.'

Under strict government guidance over the past three years, China has become the No. 2 market in terms of display panel shipments, holding 20 percent of global market share. In a recent road map set for 2025, the government plans to pour considerable resources into nurturing value-added, high-end display panels, including OLED, in the coming years.'"

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