IDC: Apple's iOS Market Share to Steadily Drop by 2019 but Apple's Focus on Profits is More Valuable
IDC reports today that despite Apple's continued success with its variants of the iPhone, the story among operating systems is not expected to change throughout the forecast period between 2015 and 2019, with Android's 81% share in 2015 carrying forward until 2019 and Apple's iOS actually falling in that same time frame.
Markets with the biggest growth opportunity are extremely price sensitive, which IDC believes will not change, and this is the main reason Apple will be challenged to take Android share throughout the forecast.
Even if Apple were to introduce another low-cost iPhone (e.g., 'C' version), IDC believes the price will struggle to compete with Android OEMs that are focused on portfolios aimed at price points of $200 and less.
Interestingly, and for the first time, IDC admitted that market share isn't as important as other market players make it to be. Specifically, IDC stated that "This isn't to suggest that Apple's success with the iPhone won't continue, and IDC believes its efforts to maintain significantly higher margins compared to its competitors are much more valuable than chasing share." Finally IDC gets the foolishness of only cheering on "market share" stats. I hope that they'll continue with that believe going forward.
IDC further noted that Android shipments globally are expected to grow from 1.06 billion in 2014 to 1.54 billion in 2019, while iOS shipments will grow from 192.7 million in 2014 to 269.6 million in 2019. IDC's view that Microsoft/Windows Phone will remain a marginal challenger at best has not changed.
On the device front, phablets (smartphones with 5.5"-7" screens) will continue to drive shipment volumes in both emerging and developed markets. "Since Apple finally delivered a larger screen smartphone with the iPhone 6+, the demand for large screened devices among consumers has been at a record high," said Anthony Scarsella, Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phones team.
"Smartphones featuring display sizes from 5.5 inches to 6 inches are forecast to grow 84% in 2015 compared to last year, while phablets overall will make up over 71% of shipments by 2019." It is also worth noting that this screen size (5.5"-6") also plays the role of having the highest average selling prices for devices throughout the forecast. IDC expects this screen size band to be the placeholder for a majority of vendors' flagship device launches throughout the forecast period.
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